William Smith Profile Picture Individual Investor

William Smith

Vice President, Sales

  • Investment Experience 15+ years

Core Price Volatility Volume

The model uses quantitative analysis to find short term overbought and oversold conditions in equities.The model has low volatility, low drawdown and steady income.
The approach is a purely quantitative analysis of price, volatility, and volume. Bill has backtested and optimized on in-sample data over thousands of trades, and approximately ten years. He then further verified on out-of-sample data, and finally traded in real time, beginning in June 2009.
Each day, Bill scans approximately 8000 stocks using proprietary computer algorithms, to find ideal trade candidates. Once he chooses candidates, he identifies specific entry points, position size, and rankings. He then uses limit orders during after hours trading for possible execution at market open. Note that the Covestor replication process replicates trades using market orders.
Bill’s proprietary algorithm calculates each trade – including position sizes. Rebalancing is unnecessary since each trade is held, on average, three to four days. Position size is a function of volatility, probability, portfolio allocation and liquidity, with emphasis on large cap companies.
Bill determines exit criteria using his quantitative approach. Each day, he calculates exit prices for each holding, and updates exit orders. He determines exits dynamically, as a function of price movement, price target, and volatility.
There are no exceptions to the strategy. It is very mechanical and followed precisely.

Risk rating

5
8.8%

Best 30 days

-13.3%

Worst 30 days

Performance

  • 7.4%
    30 day
  • -9.9%
    365 days
  • -14.5%
    Since Inception
    December 13, 2010
Monthly vs S&P500
Sparkbar Graph, Core Price Volatility Volume Investment Model Performance versus S&P500
-20.7%

Last 12 months

  • $5,000 subscription min
  • 1.5% fee

Replicability

99.5%
0.5%
  • Replicable
  • Non-replicable

Top 5 Holdings View all

13.0%
4.0%
3.9%
3.7%
0.5%
  • ARNA
  • ACHN
  • SCSS
  • RDN
  • PUDA

Model commentary

  1. Volatility feeds the machine - William Smith

    7 July 2011

  2. William Smith: Burned by PUDA, working my way back 14 June 2011
  3. William Smith: Why I sell, buy, and overweight a … 9 May 2011
  4. Puda Coal and my quantitative models - W. Smith … 20 April 2011
  5. What Covestor managers are buying: Opnext (OPXT, … 18 March 2011

show more


Performance detail

  • Manager
  • Russell 3000
  • S&P 500

Performance

Inception December 13, 2010
as of May 24, 2012 Manager Russell 3000 S&P 500 Average Subscriber
Past 30 days 7.4% -3.8% -3.7% -
Past 90 days 7.8% -3.9% -3.3% -
Past 365 days -9.9% -1.1% 0.0% -
Since Inception (Annualized) -10.2% 3.9% 4.4% -
2012 (YTD) 7.9% 5.2% 5.0% -
2011 -20.8% -0.9% 0.0% -

Risk Metrics

Last 365 Days
as of May 24, 2012 Manager Russell 3000 S&P 500
Best 30 days 8.8% 14.2% 13.6%
Worst 30 days -13.3% -18.0% -16.7%
Volatility 15.9% 24.2% 23.2%
Sharpe Ratio -0.63 -0.05 -0.01
Sortino Ratio -0.76 -0.07 -0.01
Maximum Drawdown -20.7% -20.5% -18.8%
Value-at-risk (95%, 1 week) -3.7% -5.6% -5.4%
vs. Russell 3000 vs. S&P 500
Information Ratio -0.40 -0.47
Alpha -9.8% -10.0%
Beta 0.30 0.31
R-Squared 0.21 0.21

Latest transactions view all

Average trades per month 22.7
Executed Symbol Security Replicable Type Price
04/23/12 RDN RADIAN GROUP INC Yes Buy $2.98
04/23/12 ARNA ARENA PHARMACEUTICALS INC Yes Buy $2.03
04/23/12 SCSS SELECT COMFORT CORP Yes Buy $29.48
04/23/12 ACHN ACHILLION PHARMACEUTICALS Yes Buy $7.20
12/30/11 BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond Inc Yes Sell $58.69
12/28/11 BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond Inc Yes Buy $57.64
12/23/11 RHT RED HAT INC Yes Sell $40.77
12/22/11 GLW Corning Inc Yes Sell $12.83
  • $5,000 subscription min
  • 1.5% fee

Important Information

Important Information

1. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

2. Performance of the model manager's account is calculated by Covestor on a daily time-weighted basis, including cash, dividends and earnings distributions, and broker commissions. Manager returns include trades that fail Covestor's trading rules, do not reflect any Covestor suitability or risk score restrictions and are exclusive of Covestor fees. More

3. Average subscription returns ("Avg Sub" or "Avg Client") are calculated by Covestor and are composed of the average, daily, time weighted returns of all active subscriptions to the underlying model. These daily average returns are then linked together for the timeframe requested. In addition, these returns include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, brokerage commissions, Covestor advisory fees, and reflect individual client suitability and risk score restrictions. More

4. All graph data is as of the end of day for the referenced period, unless otherwise specified. The subscription minimum is the minimum subscription required to follow a particular model. The minimum amount is determined by Covestor, based on the characteristics of the underlying model. It should not be considered as specific investment advice for your investment situation.

5. Benchmark returns have been calculated by Covestor using a time-weighted calculation of daily index valuations and do not include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, or transaction costs. More

6. Leverage indicates the level of margin utilized and is calculated by dividing gross exposure by portfolio net liquidation value.

7. All Model Manager information including personal data, profiles, strategies, monthly investment reports, and historical results outside of Covestor has been provided by the Model Manager. Covestor makes no representation or warranty of its accuracy, completeness or relevance and it does not represent the opinions of Covestor. Transaction history is available upon request. Model classifications (Approach, Asset Class) are provided by Covestor, and are intended to serve as a general guide.

8. Top Replicable Holdings: These securities are currently held in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable Holdings" currently pass Covestor's trading rules, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription holdings may vary.

9. Latest Transactions: These transactions were executed in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable" () passed Covestor's trading rules and were eligible for replication at the time of execution, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription trade activity may vary.

10. S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index compiled by Standard & Poor´s Corp. Index returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Individuals cannot invest directly in an Index. S&P 500 index data: S&P 500 Copyright © 2012.

11. Dow Jones index data: CME Group Index Services, LLC 2012