Quantemonics Investing Profile Picture Individual Investor

Quantemonics

Quantemonics Investing

Relative Value

We use a two-tier approach to stock portfolio creation. We run computer models of overall economic and stock market risk to assess the current point in the growth/recession cycle. This effort is aimed at weighting our portfolios in the right sectors, industries and company capitalizations, using appropriate levels of cash and ETF hedges to control downside risk. At the same time, we use fundamental, company-specific data, tracking relative valuations for each business versus historical standards, striving to remain invested in the most undervalued sectors and individual names. We believe keeping investment risks contained while leaving potential upside unlimited is the key to success in the stock market.
We use a quantitative, database model, reviewing thousands of stocks in search of undervalued companies. The main inputs in our formula are cash flow projections, tangible book value and liquidation calculations, profit margins, liability totals and types, and revenue projections. We also consider proprietary ratings, short interest data, insider trading activity, technical and volume patterns, management ratings and other inputs for each company. Most holdings will be in out-of-favor, "contrarian" ideas. Our goal is to own companies that will become more valuable in time, as economic conditions change and those businesses grow larger in size and/or profitability.
We use a variety of quantitative stock screens, generated from in-house databases. We have developed a proprietary overall stock market risk indicator, the Market Breadth Index (MBI), which includes twenty different predictors of future stock market trend, each mathematically scored. It has been used in real-time since 1993 for weighting portfolios, and back tested through 80 years of market activity. Intense review of earnings reports, quarterly statements and filings, management communications/disclosures with the public and our direct correspondence play a role in final decisions.
We aim to hold 25-40 individual positions at a time, roughly equally weighted, with emphasis on diversification through different sectors and industries. We try to maintain some exposure to each of the major market sectors and various market capitalizations. We may own ETFs, including leveraged and inverse ETFs, as hedges and for sector participation. We may own foreign-based or international focused businesses.
Stocks will be replaced based on predetermined stop-loss levels (note that the Covestor replication system does not use stop losses), when we uncover compelling values greater than those owned in the portfolio, or when higher levels of cash or hedges are desired to reduce the portfolio's overall stock market exposure. We aim to keep turnover at less than 100% annually, but it may reach 150%-200%. Holding period of particular positions varies from a few weeks to many years.
None.

Risk rating

2
4.6%

Best 30 days

-3.9%

Worst 30 days

Performance

  • 1.0%
    30 day
  • 1.2%
    365 days
  • -0.4%
    Since Inception
    February 08, 2011
Monthly vs S&P500
Sparkbar Graph, Relative Value Investment Model Performance versus S&P500
-2.1%

Last 12 months

  • $10,000 subscription min
  • 1.5% fee

Replicability

100.0%
  • Replicable

Top 5 Holdings View all

23.2%
11.8%
9.1%
8.6%
4.8%
  • SDS
  • PSQ
  • EEV
  • SEF
  • COP

Model commentary

  1. Hedging and diversification still matter in this uncertain market

    19 March 2012

    The Quantemonics Relative Value portfolio has been lagging the sharp rise in the market since November 2011.

  2. Welcome to the economic Twilight Zone 15 February 2012
  3. Quantemonics featured in Barron's 10 January 2012
  4. Giving ourselves a B+ for 2011 - and here's how … 30 December 2011
  5. How we pick stocks: The case of Johnson & Johnson … 31 October 2011

show more


Performance detail

  • Manager
  • Russell 3000
  • S&P 500

Performance

Inception February 08, 2011
as of May 23, 2012 Manager Russell 3000 S&P 500 Average Subscriber
Past 30 days 1.0% -3.6% -3.5% 0.9%
Past 90 days -3.3% -3.9% -3.3% -3.5%
Past 365 days 1.2% -0.8% 0.2% -0.7%
Since Inception (Annualized) -0.3% -0.9% -0.3% -
2012 (YTD) -2.1% 5.0% 4.9% -2.7%

Risk Metrics

Last 365 Days
as of May 23, 2012 Manager Russell 3000 S&P 500
Best 30 days 4.6% 14.2% 13.6%
Worst 30 days -3.9% -18.0% -16.7%
Volatility 6.0% 24.2% 23.2%
Sharpe Ratio 0.17 -0.04 0.00
Sortino Ratio 0.27 -0.05 0.00
Maximum Drawdown -6.0% -20.5% -18.8%
Value-at-risk (95%, 1 week) -1.4% -5.6% -5.4%
vs. Russell 3000 vs. S&P 500
Information Ratio 0.07 0.04
Alpha 1.6% 1.7%
Beta -0.13 -0.13
R-Squared 0.27 0.27

Latest transactions view all

Average trades per month 7.7
Executed Symbol Security Replicable Type Price
05/23/12 MSFT Microsoft Corp Yes Buy $28.65
05/22/12 GME GameStop Corp Yes Sell $19.16
05/18/12 ATPG ATP Oil & Gas Corp/United States Yes Sell $5.38
05/15/12 HES Hess Corp Yes Sell $45.44
05/11/12 GTAT GT SOLAR INTERNATIONAL INC Yes Sell $5.48
05/07/12 HPQ Hewlett-Packard Co Yes Sell $24.04
04/19/12 MSFT Microsoft Corp Yes Sell $31.30
04/17/12 SDS ProShares UltraShort S&P500 Yes Buy $15.63
  • $10,000 subscription min
  • 1.5% fee

Important Information

Important Information

1. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

2. Performance of the model manager's account is calculated by Covestor on a daily time-weighted basis, including cash, dividends and earnings distributions, and broker commissions. Manager returns include trades that fail Covestor's trading rules, do not reflect any Covestor suitability or risk score restrictions and are exclusive of Covestor fees. More

3. Average subscription returns ("Avg Sub" or "Avg Client") are calculated by Covestor and are composed of the average, daily, time weighted returns of all active subscriptions to the underlying model. These daily average returns are then linked together for the timeframe requested. In addition, these returns include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, brokerage commissions, Covestor advisory fees, and reflect individual client suitability and risk score restrictions. More

4. All graph data is as of the end of day for the referenced period, unless otherwise specified. The subscription minimum is the minimum subscription required to follow a particular model. The minimum amount is determined by Covestor, based on the characteristics of the underlying model. It should not be considered as specific investment advice for your investment situation.

5. Benchmark returns have been calculated by Covestor using a time-weighted calculation of daily index valuations and do not include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, or transaction costs. More

6. Leverage indicates the level of margin utilized and is calculated by dividing gross exposure by portfolio net liquidation value.

7. All Model Manager information including personal data, profiles, strategies, monthly investment reports, and historical results outside of Covestor has been provided by the Model Manager. Covestor makes no representation or warranty of its accuracy, completeness or relevance and it does not represent the opinions of Covestor. Transaction history is available upon request. Model classifications (Approach, Asset Class) are provided by Covestor, and are intended to serve as a general guide.

8. Top Replicable Holdings: These securities are currently held in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable Holdings" currently pass Covestor's trading rules, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription holdings may vary.

9. Latest Transactions: These transactions were executed in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable" () passed Covestor's trading rules and were eligible for replication at the time of execution, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription trade activity may vary.

10. S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index compiled by Standard & Poor´s Corp. Index returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Individuals cannot invest directly in an Index. S&P 500 index data: S&P 500 Copyright © 2012.

11. Dow Jones index data: CME Group Index Services, LLC 2012