Jeremy Zhou Profile Picture Individual Investor

Jeremy Zhou

Director of Healthcare and Research,Financial Services

  • Education B.S. Nutrition & Toxicology, Masters of Public Health, Registered Dietitian, CFA Charterholder
  • Qualifications UC Berkeley

Biotech and Medtech

The U.S. healthcare industry, particularly Biotech and MedTech, is the core investment universe of my strategy. I use a combination of top-down and bottom-up fundamental analysis to evaluate potential opportunities and risks, with macro-factors primarily employed for sector allocation and rotation, and company-specific factors used for individual stock selection and weighting. Five key variables drive my valuation and assessment of the risk/reward profile for individual companies: balance sheet health, competitive landscape, pipeline status, product lifecycle, and clinical/regulatory catalyst events.
I use a combination of top-down and bottom-up fundamental analysis to evaluate potential opportunities and risks, with macro-factors primarily employed for sector allocation and rotation, and company-specific factors used for individual stock selection and weighting. Five key variables drive my valuation and assessment of the risk/reward profile for individual companies: balance sheet health, competitive landscape, pipeline status, product lifecycle, and clinical/regulatory catalyst events.
I begin with idea generation through screens, news filtering, corporate action monitoring and daily reading. I then evaluate promising ideas and rank them based on risk/reward profile. Payoff calculation involves approximating the intrinsic value of the company relative to its current price, while probability of success involves due diligence on some or all of the five key variables: balance sheet health, competitive landscape, pipeline status, product lifecycle and clinical/regulatory catalyst events.
My long-only portfolio allocation is primarily driven by two techniques: Fractional Kelly Criterion and Position Limit. I determine initial stock weighting by potential payoff and probability of success, which are inputs to calculating Kelly Criterion. I use position limit for rebalancing and risk management, where 10% to 15% is the maximum threshold for any single stock position in the portfolio. In addition, I use rebalancing techniques depending on whether the market is in trending or oscillating mode. Typically, the portfolio seeks to diversify across 25-30 positions. I do not anticipate high turnover in the portfolio.
I enter most trades with specific catalyst events and time horizons that I believe will lead to the closing of the valuation gap between current price and intrinsic value. I sell after the catalyst events happened, or if the catalyst events are no longer valid. Selling can also be triggered when positions reach full or over-valuation, even if catalyst events have not yet occurred.
The strategy described above takes advantage of several fundamental inefficiencies that persist in the U.S. healthcare industry. If there’s any significant change to U.S. policy involving drug/device pricing and reimbursement, this strategy may lose its edge and would require modification.

Risk rating

3
11.9%

Best 30 days

-26.4%

Worst 30 days

Performance

  • -4.7%
    30 day
  • -6.7%
    365 days
  • -1.1%
    Since Inception
    January 17, 2011
Monthly vs S&P500
Sparkbar Graph, Biotech and Medtech Investment Model Performance versus S&P500
-7.5%

Last 12 months

  • $10,000 subscription min
  • margin account required
  • 2.3% fee

Replicability

100.0%
  • Replicable

Top 5 Holdings View all

14.7%
11.8%
6.4%
6.1%
5.9%
  • TSPT
  • PDLI
  • AFFY
  • PLX
  • MAXY

Model commentary

  1. How I approach biotech investing

    16 April 2012

    Essentially biotech investors assume the role of venture capitalist by funding drug companies with high failure risk.

  2. My top 10 money lessons from 2011 20 January 2012
  3. What Steve Jobs teaches us as investors 13 October 2011
  4. Behavioral missteps are an investor's biggest … 21 June 2011
  5. Teva, Transcept, Biodel and now Bristol-Myers … 30 March 2011

show more


Performance detail

  • Manager
  • Nasdaq Biotech
  • S&P 500

Performance

Inception January 17, 2011
as of May 22, 2012 Manager Nasdaq Biotech S&P 500 Average Subscriber
Past 30 days -4.7% 1.5% -4.5% -4.5%
Past 90 days 2.3% 5.9% -3.0% 2.9%
Past 365 days -6.7% 16.1% -0.1% -5.8%
Since Inception (Annualized) -0.9% 20.4% 1.3% -
2012 (YTD) 9.9% 18.5% 4.7% 11.0%

Risk Metrics

Last 365 Days
as of May 22, 2012 Manager Nasdaq Biotech S&P 500
Best 30 days 11.9% 14.9% 13.6%
Worst 30 days -26.4% -22.9% -16.7%
Volatility 25.0% 26.4% 23.2%
Sharpe Ratio -0.27 0.60 -0.01
Sortino Ratio -0.32 0.77 -0.01
Maximum Drawdown -30.4% -22.9% -18.8%
Value-at-risk (95%, 1 week) -5.8% -6.1% -5.4%
vs. Nasdaq Biotech vs. S&P 500
Information Ratio -1.38 -0.40
Alpha -17.6% -5.9%
Beta 0.75 0.82
R-Squared 0.63 0.58

Latest transactions view all

Average trades per month 9.7
Executed Symbol Security Replicable Type Price
05/18/12 TTNP TITAN PHARMACEUTICALS INC Yes Sell $0.71
05/18/12 DNDN DENDREON CORPORATION Yes Sell $7.25
05/18/12 PGNX PROGENICS PHARMACEUTICALS Yes Sell $7.52
05/18/12 LXRX LEXICON PHARMACEUTICALS INC Yes Sell $1.51
05/18/12 AMRN AMARIN CORPORATION PLC -ADR Yes Sell $10.07
05/17/12 TSPT TRANSCEPT PHARMACEUTICALS INC Yes Buy $7.70
05/11/12 ARNA ARENA PHARMACEUTICALS INC Yes Sell $6.00
05/08/12 ARNA ARENA PHARMACEUTICALS INC Yes Sell $3.42
  • $10,000 subscription min
  • margin account required
  • 2.3% fee

Important Information

Important Information

1. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

2. Performance of the model manager's account is calculated by Covestor on a daily time-weighted basis, including cash, dividends and earnings distributions, and broker commissions. Manager returns include trades that fail Covestor's trading rules, do not reflect any Covestor suitability or risk score restrictions and are exclusive of Covestor fees. More

3. Average subscription returns ("Avg Sub" or "Avg Client") are calculated by Covestor and are composed of the average, daily, time weighted returns of all active subscriptions to the underlying model. These daily average returns are then linked together for the timeframe requested. In addition, these returns include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, brokerage commissions, Covestor advisory fees, and reflect individual client suitability and risk score restrictions. More

4. All graph data is as of the end of day for the referenced period, unless otherwise specified. The subscription minimum is the minimum subscription required to follow a particular model. The minimum amount is determined by Covestor, based on the characteristics of the underlying model. It should not be considered as specific investment advice for your investment situation.

5. Benchmark returns have been calculated by Covestor using a time-weighted calculation of daily index valuations and do not include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, or transaction costs. More

6. Leverage indicates the level of margin utilized and is calculated by dividing gross exposure by portfolio net liquidation value.

7. All Model Manager information including personal data, profiles, strategies, monthly investment reports, and historical results outside of Covestor has been provided by the Model Manager. Covestor makes no representation or warranty of its accuracy, completeness or relevance and it does not represent the opinions of Covestor. Transaction history is available upon request. Model classifications (Approach, Asset Class) are provided by Covestor, and are intended to serve as a general guide.

8. Top Replicable Holdings: These securities are currently held in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable Holdings" currently pass Covestor's trading rules, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription holdings may vary.

9. Latest Transactions: These transactions were executed in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable" () passed Covestor's trading rules and were eligible for replication at the time of execution, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription trade activity may vary.

10. S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index compiled by Standard & Poor´s Corp. Index returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Individuals cannot invest directly in an Index. S&P 500 index data: S&P 500 Copyright © 2012.

11. Dow Jones index data: CME Group Index Services, LLC 2012