Douglas Estadt Profile Picture Individual Investor

Douglas Estadt

Founder and CEO, Wall Street Media and Wall Street Webcasting,Financial Services

  • Education University of Pennsylvania

Management Access

The model relies on access to management pitches and conference calls and looks for powerful growth stories.  The manager then takes a view on whether these are credible and not yet fully valued in by the market. This is a short-term model that buys credible growth stories and waits for the news to be priced in.

The manager makes an opportunistic selection of small to mid cap stocks based on an unrecognised growth or an undervaluation story. Following company investor presentations, the manager identifies situations where company management indicates the company has a new growth story or is overlooked in comparison to its peers.

Manager research couples company management presentations with basic fundamental and trading data surrounding the company.  These stocks tend not to be widely covered by the analyst community and it may take time for the stories to come to fruition or to be fairly valued by the market.

The manager considers approximately five real opportunities per week. Investment level is opportunistically based on confidence in the story and the fundamentals of the company. The manager invests around 10% in each opportunity, but may purchase more if he's confident in the story and if the stock depreciates.

Time horizon depends on the story and valuation or volatility. In a small cap stock with an exciting fundamental growth story, the model may wait as long as 6 months to capture value. In a stock that has been overlooked in comparison to its peers but has the same fundamental drivers, the manager may realise his gain in a few days.

A portion of the investment portfolio may be in more macro, international themes that the model captures with ETFs.


Risk rating

5
Leverage: 1.41
198.4%

Best 30 days

-34.7%

Worst 30 days

Performance

  • -10.8%
    30 day
  • -55.9%
    365 days
  • 74.8%
    Since Inception
    April 12, 2009
Monthly vs S&P500
Sparkbar Graph, Management Access Investment Model Performance versus S&P500
-57.4%

Last 12 months

  • $25,000 subscription min
  • margin account required
  • 1.5% fee

Replicability

100.0%
  • Replicable

Top 5 Holdings View all

33.1%
14.1%
8.6%
8.3%
-36.3%
  • F
  • SDRL
  • VVUS
  • VXX
  • LNKD

Model commentary

  1. Here's where Google makes its gobs of money

    6 September 2011

    It's almost entirely from ads, and 4 of the 5 most expensive keywords on AdWords are for financial services.

  2. Will Ford's 1.2 million vehicle recall hurt the … 2 August 2011
  3. SEC launches formal investigation into St. Joe … 7 July 2011
  4. Google searching Hulu for acquisition opportu… 6 July 2011
  5. Fuel-efficient vehicles driving Ford sales (F) 5 July 2011

show more


Performance detail

  • Manager
  • Dow Jones Aggressive
  • S&P 500

Performance

Inception April 12, 2009
as of May 15, 2012 Manager Dow Jones Aggressive S&P 500 Average Subscriber
Past 30 days -10.8% -3.7% -2.9% -10.7%
Past 90 days -24.0% -3.9% -0.9% -23.8%
Past 365 days -55.9% -5.1% 0.1% -57.0%
Since Inception (Annualized) 19.8% 18.4% 15.3% -
2012 (YTD) -26.6% 5.5% 5.8% -25.7%
2011 -42.0% -5.1% 0.0% -44.5%
2010 35.8% 19.4% 12.8% 18.8%

Risk Metrics

Last 365 Days
as of May 15, 2012 Manager Dow Jones Aggressive S&P 500
Best 30 days 26.1% 14.4% 13.6%
Worst 30 days -34.6% -18.0% -16.7%
Volatility 55.0% 22.4% 23.1%
Sharpe Ratio -1.02 -0.23 -0.00
Sortino Ratio -1.37 -0.31 -0.00
Maximum Drawdown -56.6% -22.3% -18.8%
Value-at-risk (95%, 1 week) -12.7% -5.2% -5.4%
vs. Dow Jones Aggressive vs. S&P 500
Information Ratio -1.26 -1.42
Alpha -61.7% -71.8%
Beta 1.90 1.86
R-Squared 0.60 0.61

Latest transactions view all

Average trades per month 146.4
Executed Symbol Security Replicable Type Price
05/01/12 NORW GLOBAL X NORWAY ETF Yes Sell $14.45
05/01/12 GRPN Groupon Inc. Yes Buy to cover $11.13
05/01/12 KFT KRAFT FOODS INC-CLASS A Yes Sell $39.93
05/01/12 GRPN Groupon Inc. Yes Buy to cover $11.15
04/04/12 MAIN MAIN STREET CAPITAL CORP Yes Sell $24.89
04/04/12 K KELLOGG CO Yes Sell $53.30
04/04/12 JOE ST JOE CO/THE Yes Sell $17.80
04/02/12 JOE ST JOE CO/THE Yes Sell $18.51
  • $25,000 subscription min
  • margin account required
  • 1.5% fee

Important Information

Important Information

1. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

2. Performance of the model manager's account is calculated by Covestor on a daily time-weighted basis, including cash, dividends and earnings distributions, and broker commissions. Manager returns include trades that fail Covestor's trading rules, do not reflect any Covestor suitability or risk score restrictions and are exclusive of Covestor fees. More

3. Average subscription returns ("Avg Sub" or "Avg Client") are calculated by Covestor and are composed of the average, daily, time weighted returns of all active subscriptions to the underlying model. These daily average returns are then linked together for the timeframe requested. In addition, these returns include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, brokerage commissions, Covestor advisory fees, and reflect individual client suitability and risk score restrictions. More

4. All graph data is as of the end of day for the referenced period, unless otherwise specified. The subscription minimum is the minimum subscription required to follow a particular model. The minimum amount is determined by Covestor, based on the characteristics of the underlying model. It should not be considered as specific investment advice for your investment situation.

5. Benchmark returns have been calculated by Covestor using a time-weighted calculation of daily index valuations and do not include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, or transaction costs. More

6. Leverage indicates the level of margin utilized and is calculated by dividing gross exposure by portfolio net liquidation value.

7. All Model Manager information including personal data, profiles, strategies, monthly investment reports, and historical results outside of Covestor has been provided by the Model Manager. Covestor makes no representation or warranty of its accuracy, completeness or relevance and it does not represent the opinions of Covestor. Transaction history is available upon request. Model classifications (Approach, Asset Class) are provided by Covestor, and are intended to serve as a general guide.

8. Top Replicable Holdings: These securities are currently held in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable Holdings" currently pass Covestor's trading rules, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription holdings may vary.

9. Latest Transactions: These transactions were executed in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable" () passed Covestor's trading rules and were eligible for replication at the time of execution, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription trade activity may vary.

10. S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index compiled by Standard & Poor´s Corp. Index returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Individuals cannot invest directly in an Index. S&P 500 index data: S&P 500 Copyright © 2012.

11. Dow Jones index data: CME Group Index Services, LLC 2012