Chris Kochiya Profile Picture Individual Investor

Chris Kochiya

Pharmacist,Hospital and Health Care

  • Education UC Berkeley, University of the Pacific
  • Qualifications BA, Pharm.D.

Stocks Gold Treasuries US Dollars

This strategy compares the price trends of stocks, gold, treasuries, and US Dollars using 5 ETFs including SPY (stocks), GLD (gold), IEF (US Treasuries), UUP (US Dollars) and UDN (inverse US Dollars).  The model will periodically switch into the vehicle(s) displaying the best price trend(s).
Trend analysis can give an indication of where institutional money is flowing.  Commonly, institutional money flows between stocks and gold and treasuries.  For example, if stocks are out of favor, then it is common for either gold or treasuries to be in favor.  And vice versa.
The price history of these 5 ETFs is utilized to determine the trends of stocks, gold, treasuries, and US Dollars.
The nature of this model is to get onboard the strongest performing vehicle(s), whether it be stocks, gold, treasuries or US Dollar.  The model may be invested in more than one vehicle at a time.

Regarding the holding period, positions may be held from one month to several months, depending on the nature of the markets.
As this is a model in which there is switching between stocks, gold, treasuries and US Dollars, when one position is closed, another is opened.  The determination to close one position and open another is based upon trend analysis.
None.

Risk rating

4
17.1%

Best 30 days

-11.5%

Worst 30 days

Performance

  • -0.2%
    30 day
  • -
    365 days
  • 4.2%
    Since Inception
    July 22, 2011
Monthly vs S&P500
Sparkbar Graph, Stocks Gold Treasuries US Dollars Investment Model Performance versus S&P500
7.9%

Since Inception

  • $5,000 subscription min
  • margin account required
  • 1.5% fee

Replicability

100.0%
  • Replicable

Top 5 Holdings View all

50.2%
47.1%
2.7%
  • IEF
  • GLD
  • Cash

Model commentary

  1. Scaling out of stocks, into 7-10 yr Treasuries

    13 May 2012

    I will now sit and observe what trends develop during the month of April, and once again be prepared to rotate out of the weaker trends.

  2. Buying healthcare and industrial sector ETFs 14 February 2012

show more


Performance detail

  • Manager
  • Dow Jones Moderately Aggressive
  • S&P 500

Performance

Inception July 22, 2011
as of May 18, 2012 Manager Dow Jones Moderately Aggressive S&P 500 Average Subscriber
Past 30 days -0.2% -6.2% -6.0% -
Past 90 days 0.0% -6.5% -4.8% -
Since Inception 4.2% -7.1% -3.7% -
2012 (YTD) 6.9% 1.6% 3.0% -

Risk Metrics

Since Inception
as of May 18, 2012 Manager Dow Jones Moderately Aggressive S&P 500
Best 30 days 17.1% 11.4% 13.6%
Worst 30 days -11.5% -13.4% -16.5%
Volatility 16.7% 18.3% 24.5%
Sharpe Ratio 0.29 -0.47 -0.19
Sortino Ratio 0.38 -0.63 -0.25
Maximum Drawdown -17.1% -17.0% -18.3%
Value-at-risk (95%, 1 week) -3.9% -4.2% -5.7%
vs. Dow Jones Moderately Aggressive vs. S&P 500
Information Ratio 0.54 0.31
Alpha 6.3% 6.2%
Beta -0.00 -0.05
R-Squared 0.00 0.01

Latest transactions view all

Average trades per month 5.2
Executed Symbol Security Replicable Type Price
05/07/12 IEF ISHARES BARCLAYS 7-10 YEAR Yes Buy $105.91
05/07/12 SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Yes Sell $137.39
04/30/12 IEF ISHARES BARCLAYS 7-10 YEAR Yes Buy $105.68
04/30/12 SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Yes Sell $139.63
04/25/12 IEF ISHARES BARCLAYS 7-10 YEAR Yes Buy $105.03
04/25/12 SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Yes Sell $138.79
04/17/12 IEF ISHARES BARCLAYS 7-10 YEAR Yes Buy $104.96
04/17/12 SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Yes Sell $139.18
  • $5,000 subscription min
  • margin account required
  • 1.5% fee

Important Information

Important Information

1. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

2. Performance of the model manager's account is calculated by Covestor on a daily time-weighted basis, including cash, dividends and earnings distributions, and broker commissions. Manager returns include trades that fail Covestor's trading rules, do not reflect any Covestor suitability or risk score restrictions and are exclusive of Covestor fees. More

3. Average subscription returns ("Avg Sub" or "Avg Client") are calculated by Covestor and are composed of the average, daily, time weighted returns of all active subscriptions to the underlying model. These daily average returns are then linked together for the timeframe requested. In addition, these returns include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, brokerage commissions, Covestor advisory fees, and reflect individual client suitability and risk score restrictions. More

4. All graph data is as of the end of day for the referenced period, unless otherwise specified. The subscription minimum is the minimum subscription required to follow a particular model. The minimum amount is determined by Covestor, based on the characteristics of the underlying model. It should not be considered as specific investment advice for your investment situation.

5. Benchmark returns have been calculated by Covestor using a time-weighted calculation of daily index valuations and do not include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, or transaction costs. More

6. Leverage indicates the level of margin utilized and is calculated by dividing gross exposure by portfolio net liquidation value.

7. All Model Manager information including personal data, profiles, strategies, monthly investment reports, and historical results outside of Covestor has been provided by the Model Manager. Covestor makes no representation or warranty of its accuracy, completeness or relevance and it does not represent the opinions of Covestor. Transaction history is available upon request. Model classifications (Approach, Asset Class) are provided by Covestor, and are intended to serve as a general guide.

8. Top Replicable Holdings: These securities are currently held in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable Holdings" currently pass Covestor's trading rules, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription holdings may vary.

9. Latest Transactions: These transactions were executed in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable" () passed Covestor's trading rules and were eligible for replication at the time of execution, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription trade activity may vary.

10. S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index compiled by Standard & Poor´s Corp. Index returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Individuals cannot invest directly in an Index. S&P 500 index data: S&P 500 Copyright © 2012.

11. Dow Jones index data: CME Group Index Services, LLC 2012