System Research Profile Picture Investment Adviser

System Research

System Research

Interest Rates and Currencies

The strategy aims to capture movements in interest rates and currencies by buying long and inverse Fixed Income and Currency ETFs.
The strategy, on a daily basis, forecasts near term movements in interest rates and currency exchange rates. The forecast is generated through economic models as well as technical systems. The economic models look at dynamics in macro drivers such as inflation expectation, global interest rates and equity markets. The technical systems use trend and counter-trend analysis.
The models are extensively researched/tested and aim to capture robust and repeatable responses of the asset classes. The portfolio consists of ETFs that provide long and inverse exposure to Fixed Income and long and inverse exposure to the US Dollar. The models are run daily and use raw data imported from data vendor CSI.
Equal dollar allocation is given to the Fixed Income and Currency sub-models. Both sub-models contribute roughly equal volatility to overall portfolio. 2-Beta ETFs receive half the dollar allocation of single Beta ETFs.
Positions are initiated and closed based on the directional forecast generated by the models.
The strategy is systematic/mechanical and therefore expects to fully adhere to the model buy/sell recommendations.

This strategy may also include ETFs from other asset classes.

Risk score

3
9.1%

Best 30 days

-4.6%

Worst 30 days

Performance

  • -3.1%
    30 day
  • 0.3%
    90 day
  • -2.2%
    365 day
Monthly vs S&P500
system research - interest rates and currencies
-21.8% 12 months
  • $30,000 subscription min
  • Margin account required
  • 2% fee

Replicability

100.0%
  • Replicable

Top 5 Holdings View all

29.5%
27.9%
24.8%
17.9%

Performance detail

  • Manager
  • First Trust Taxable Fixed Income TR
  • S&P 500

Performance

Inception November 11, 2010
as of June 18, 2013 Manager First Trust Taxable Fixed Income TR S&P 500 Average Subscriber
Past 30 days -3.1% -7.5% -0.9% -
Past 90 days 0.3% -5.3% 6.0% -
Past 365 days -2.2% 8.1% 22.8% -
Since Inception (Annualized) 3.6% 7.4% 12.6% -
2013 (YTD) 1.8% -0.8% 15.8% -
2012 -0.3% 17.5% 13.4% -
2011 7.8% 4.8% -0.0% -

Risk Metrics

Last 365 days
as of June 18, 2013 Manager First Trust Taxable Fixed Income TR S&P 500
Best 30 days 4.2% 5.4% 8.2%
Worst 30 days -4.3% -9.3% -7.0%
Volatility 8.9% 7.9% 12.4%
Sharpe Ratio - 0.27 1.01 1.83
Sortino Ratio - 0.34 0.97 2.74
Maximum Drawdown -6.7% -9.7% -7.7%
Value-at-risk (95%, 1 week) -2.1% -1.8% -2.9%
vs. First Trust Taxable Fixed Income TR vs. S&P 500
Information Ratio -0.98 -1.92
Alpha -3.8% -6.2%
Beta 0.23 0.20
R-Squared 0.04 0.08
  • $30,000 subscription min
  • Margin account required
  • 2% fee

Latest transactions view all

Average trades per month 46.4
Executed Symbol Security Replicable Type Price
06/18/13 GDX MARKET VECTORS GOLD MINERS Yes Buy $27.35
06/18/13 FXE CURRENCYSHARES EURO TRUST Yes Buy $132.75
06/17/13 TLT iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund Yes Buy $113.18
06/17/13 TBT PROSHARES ULTRASHORT 20+Y TR Yes Sell $69.12
06/14/13 TBT PROSHARES ULTRASHORT 20+Y TR Yes Buy $68.12
06/14/13 TLT iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund Yes Sell $114.02
06/14/13 FXE CURRENCYSHARES EURO TRUST Yes Sell $132.21
06/14/13 GDX MARKET VECTORS GOLD MINERS Yes Sell $28.16


Important Information

1. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

2. Performance of the model manager's account is calculated by Covestor on a daily time-weighted basis, including cash, dividends and earnings distributions, and broker commissions. Manager returns include trades that fail Covestor's trading rules, do not reflect any Covestor suitability or risk score restrictions and are exclusive of Covestor fees. More

3. Average subscription returns ("Avg Sub" or "Avg Client") are calculated by Covestor and are composed of the average, daily, time weighted returns of all active subscriptions to the underlying model. These daily average returns are then linked together for the timeframe requested. In addition, these returns include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, brokerage commissions, Covestor advisory fees, and reflect individual client suitability and risk score restrictions. More

4. All graph data is as of the end of day for the referenced period, unless otherwise specified. The subscription minimum is the minimum subscription required to follow a particular model. The minimum amount is determined by Covestor, based on the characteristics of the underlying model. It should not be considered as specific investment advice for your investment situation.

5. The performance charts are provided for informational purposes only, and should not be used as the basis for making an investment decision. Variables such as corporate actions or foreign exchange may affect daily performance displays. We rely on mathematical formulas, computer programs, and pricing information from third-party vendors to provide these returns. Neither Covestor nor any of its data or content providers shall be liable for any errors in this information or any actions taken by you in reliance upon this information.

6. Benchmark returns have been calculated by Covestor using a time-weighted calculation of daily index valuations and do not include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, or transaction costs. More

7. Leverage indicates the level of margin utilized and is calculated by dividing gross exposure by portfolio net liquidation value.

8. All Model Manager information including personal data, profiles, strategies, monthly investment reports, and historical results outside of Covestor has been provided by the Model Manager. Covestor makes no representation or warranty of its accuracy, completeness or relevance and it does not represent the opinions of Covestor. Transaction history is available upon request. Model classifications (Approach, Asset Class) are provided by Covestor, and are intended to serve as a general guide.

9. Top Replicable Holdings: These securities are currently held in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable Holdings" currently pass Covestor's trading rules, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription holdings may vary.

10. Latest Transactions: These transactions were executed in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable" () passed Covestor's trading rules and were eligible for replication at the time of execution, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription trade activity may vary.

11. S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index compiled by Standard & Poor´s Corp. Index returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Individuals cannot invest directly in an Index. S&P 500 index data: S&P/Dow Jones Indices LLC, a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies Copyright © 2013.