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We look to blend three primary factors:
1. Evaluation of the funds market price to net asset value (NAV) in the context of historical levels and current peer levels. We also try to answer the question. “Why is it different now?” are investors mad at the fund or some other short-term condition, or did the rules change in which we should evaluate the manager or sector?
2. How has the manager performed after cost or expenses? (NAV total return performance). How has he done vs. peer fund and similar indexes?
3. The third part of our analysis is looking at the funds sectors, CEF data and peer funds to see if they are delivering a distribution level that is more likely to be maintained or increased vs reduced.
We try to blend the asset allocation and manager research with the ability to seek CEF alpha, which is experiencing the narrowing of a CEF discount to NAV. Discounts can also help protect investors from expected market or fund news items. Discounts at a certain level draw in institutional and activist investors which can help support the stock price in many cases.
Dynamic Option Strategy targets capital appreciation along with income generation by strategically selling options on the broad market index and large cap stocks. We seek to generate positive portfolio cash flow through careful risk management in all market environments.
Sera Capital Management’s Financial Tales Portfolio is designed for investors, not speculators. This global tactical strategy invests in a mix of Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs), and seeks to potentially outperform inflation by 5% a year over multiple market cycles. We attempt to achieve that goal while taking on about half the risk of the S&P 500.
The Centric Core portfolio seeks to complement other equity investment strategies. It tends to take on less risk and offer slightly less reward than the S&P 500 over time. Most importantly, my own research suggests that it is less correlated to value and growth than the S&P 500 Index, making it a potentially better source of diversification.
We do not believe we are smarter than the market, nor can we time the market in any given week or month. As a result, we take an approach similar to an insurance company in our investment strategy that focuses on probability of success and the management of risk.
All investments entail risk. Loss events do occur. However, there is an undeniable characteristic of investors (humans). We have an overwhelming fear of large loss and that translates into overpaying for “insurance”. Horse Cove makes money because at its core, that “insurance” is over-priced. There is a difference between implied volatility in the pricing of an option and the realized volatility at expiration. That difference cannot be arbitraged away. Horse Cove Partners profits by selling implied volatility and profits when realized volatility is less than implied as time decays.
As advisers, we understand that events will occur. “When” they will occur is the unknown. One of the keys to success is to take intelligent losses when those events occur and expect that the trading strategy will result in positive performance net of those losses over time.
We believe our success comes from focusing on the risk of each trade. By maintaining a weekly investment horizon and relying on over 60 years of history of market movement we believe it is possible to realize positive returns through option transactions, while maintaining acceptable risk limits.