Rocco Huang Profile Picture Individual Investor

Rocco Huang

Finance Professor,Higher Education

  • Education Universiteit van Amsterdam, University of Cambridge
  • Qualifications Ph.D

Tortoise and the Hare

Invest in business franchises that grow at a tortoise’s pace, i.e., moderate, but efficient and persistent. Emphasize capital efficiency, growth predictability, cash generation, and margin of safety. Require a franchise to demonstrate a favorable long-term future, but estimate its value based heavily on conservative cash flow forecast for the next 5 years only. Shun distressed turnaround situations. Prefer management with a long track record of shareholder-friendly capital deployment policies.
Adopt a quantitative and systematic system of bottom-up stock selection. May use discretion to veto a signal. Prefer stocks with visible upward-trending earnings growth in the medium term. Seek a margin of safety in both “economic moats” (e.g., strong market power) and purchase price discounts. The main pricing error our system attempts to exploit is the equity market’s under-appreciation of moderate but relatively predictable medium term outlook, in contrast to its tendency to overpay for rosy near- and long-term expectations.
Main data inputs include both historical and forward estimated accounting numbers. In setting forward views, in general avoid large deviation from Street broker consensus. However, the target prices generated by our system usually differ significantly from Street consensus, as a result of our different take on the same inputs. Also set parameters based on our own proprietary research on the mean-reversion patterns of profitability and growth trajectories in different sectors and industry life cycle stages.
Invest in 10 to 20 large-cap domestic stocks (no ADRs; at least $10 billion in market cap). Avoid (without prejudice) financial, commodity, and conglomerate stocks. Cautious about strongly cyclical stocks. We tilt the portfolio based on a stock’s expected alpha and portfolio hedging value, but avoid over- or under-weighting a stock or any of the four major sectors (consumer discretionary, consumer staples, healthcare, IT). We have macro views, but limit cash to max 20%, in order to reduce tracking errors vs. our benchmark.
Sell when the gap between a stock's market and target prices has become too small, as a result of price fluctuations and/or changes in fundamental outlooks. Sell decisions are made independent of initial purchase prices. May sell earlier if more attractive opportunities or portfolio hedging needs arise. The investment horizon is not forever, but typically 2-3 years.
None.

Risk rating

2
9.0%

Best 30 days

-10.6%

Worst 30 days

Performance

  • -4.4%
    30 day
  • -
    365 days
  • 6.7%
    Since Inception
    July 06, 2011
Monthly vs S&P500
Sparkbar Graph, Tortoise and the Hare Investment Model Performance versus S&P500
8.2%

Since Inception

  • $5,000 subscription min
  • 0.5% fee

Replicability

100.0%
  • Replicable

Top 5 Holdings View all

8.6%
7.7%
5.3%
5.2%
5.2%
  • AAPL
  • ATVI
  • GILD
  • MO
  • LO

Model commentary

  1. Why is AutoZone chasing your clunkers?

    2 February 2012

    Why I like to invest in DIY auto shops in this poor economy.

  2. Extreme value stores: Occupy the poor 31 January 2012
  3. Entertainment stocks: Selling dreams to the H… 23 January 2012
  4. To vote or not to vote? 21 December 2011
  5. Why did Warren Buffett buy IBM stock - and should … 20 December 2011

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Performance detail

  • Manager
  • S&P 500

Performance

Inception July 06, 2011
as of May 23, 2012 Manager S&P 500 Average Subscriber
Past 30 days -4.4% -3.5% -
Past 90 days -1.3% -3.3% -
Since Inception 6.7% -1.5% -
2012 (YTD) 5.7% 4.9% -

Risk Metrics

Since Inception
as of May 23, 2012 Manager S&P 500
Best 30 days 9.0% 13.6%
Worst 30 days -10.6% -16.7%
Volatility 15.9% 24.0%
Sharpe Ratio 0.46 -0.08
Sortino Ratio 0.61 -0.10
Maximum Drawdown -11.8% -18.8%
Value-at-risk (95%, 1 week) -3.7% -5.6%
vs. S&P 500
Information Ratio 0.89
Alpha 7.8%
Beta 0.62
R-Squared 0.89

Latest transactions view all

Average trades per month 7.5
Executed Symbol Security Replicable Type Price
05/22/12 WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc Yes Sell $63.69
05/04/12 CMI CUMMINS INC Yes Buy $106.27
04/27/12 CI CIGNA CORP Yes Buy $46.87
04/23/12 AAPL Apple Inc Yes Buy $573.12
04/18/12 ABC AmerisourceBergen Corp Yes Buy $37.50
04/18/12 FDO FAMILY DOLLAR STORES Yes Sell $66.98
04/13/12 FDO FAMILY DOLLAR STORES Yes Sell $64.31
04/09/12 DV DEVRY INC Yes Sell $32.04
  • $5,000 subscription min
  • 0.5% fee

Important Information

Important Information

1. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

2. Performance of the model manager's account is calculated by Covestor on a daily time-weighted basis, including cash, dividends and earnings distributions, and broker commissions. Manager returns include trades that fail Covestor's trading rules, do not reflect any Covestor suitability or risk score restrictions and are exclusive of Covestor fees. More

3. Average subscription returns ("Avg Sub" or "Avg Client") are calculated by Covestor and are composed of the average, daily, time weighted returns of all active subscriptions to the underlying model. These daily average returns are then linked together for the timeframe requested. In addition, these returns include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, brokerage commissions, Covestor advisory fees, and reflect individual client suitability and risk score restrictions. More

4. All graph data is as of the end of day for the referenced period, unless otherwise specified. The subscription minimum is the minimum subscription required to follow a particular model. The minimum amount is determined by Covestor, based on the characteristics of the underlying model. It should not be considered as specific investment advice for your investment situation.

5. Benchmark returns have been calculated by Covestor using a time-weighted calculation of daily index valuations and do not include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, or transaction costs. More

6. Leverage indicates the level of margin utilized and is calculated by dividing gross exposure by portfolio net liquidation value.

7. All Model Manager information including personal data, profiles, strategies, monthly investment reports, and historical results outside of Covestor has been provided by the Model Manager. Covestor makes no representation or warranty of its accuracy, completeness or relevance and it does not represent the opinions of Covestor. Transaction history is available upon request. Model classifications (Approach, Asset Class) are provided by Covestor, and are intended to serve as a general guide.

8. Top Replicable Holdings: These securities are currently held in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable Holdings" currently pass Covestor's trading rules, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription holdings may vary.

9. Latest Transactions: These transactions were executed in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable" () passed Covestor's trading rules and were eligible for replication at the time of execution, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription trade activity may vary.

10. S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index compiled by Standard & Poor´s Corp. Index returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Individuals cannot invest directly in an Index. S&P 500 index data: S&P 500 Copyright © 2012.

11. Dow Jones index data: CME Group Index Services, LLC 2012