Robert Zingale Profile Picture Individual Investor

Robert Zingale

Internet

  • Education Cornell University
  • Qualifications BA Economics

Volatility Mean Reversion

This model generates returns from the mean reversion and contango inherent in VIX volatility futures. VIX is the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exhange Volatility Index, which shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility. Furthermore, Contango occurs when the futures price is above the expected futures spot price. Consequently, the future’s price will decline to the spot price before the delivery date.

Given the negative yield that contango creates, this strategy is short bias.
This strategy is event driven and is based on historical standard deviations from VIX volatility futures' mean reverting level. The portfolio's aggregate dollar-value short exposure will be determined based on the current VIX volatility level in relation to its historical mean reverting level. The model takes larger negative bets as VIX volatility levels rise higher above the mean reverting level as measured by historical standard deviations.
Data sources include VIX Index Levels and VIX Volatility Future prices.
Robert will sell short VXX (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN) and purchase XIV (VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN). The amounts are determined by current VIX levels and rebalancing occurs after the VIX reaches key levels that trigger cover and short actions. Most of the portfolio will be allocated to cash and/or Treasuries until volatility rises to levels warranting larger short positions.

From 2009-2011, there were approximately 25 trading opportunities.
Covering short positions will be triggered when VIX Index levels reach levels significantly below its historical mean reverting level. The mean reverting level will be based on investor risk tolerances over the past year as well as historically. Although some short exposure will exist during low volatility periods (generating returns from contango), it will be much smaller than when the VIX is higher above its mean reverting level.
The model may be long XXV during very low volatility periods to make a spread between the larger contango of the short-term VIX futures (VXX) than the mid-term VIX futures' contango (XXV). By being long XXV while short VXX during low volatility periods, the model will have a cross-hedge that will mitigate losses in VXX as VIX levels rise.

Risk rating

5
24.3%

Best 30 days

-30.9%

Worst 30 days

Performance

  • -9.1%
    30 day
  • -20.0%
    365 days
  • -18.2%
    Since Inception
    March 29, 2011
Monthly vs S&P500
Sparkbar Graph, Volatility Mean Reversion Investment Model Performance versus S&P500
-10.8%

Last 12 months

  • $5,000 subscription min
  • margin account required
  • 1.1% fee

Replicability

100.0%
  • Replicable

Top 5 Holdings View all

131.0%
-31.0%
  • Cash
  • VXZ

Model commentary

  1. A volatility index hedging strategy built for this market

    7 May 2012

    I plan to maintain my current asset allocation strategy.

  2. Holding steady with my VIX hedging strategy 19 April 2012
  3. My Short-Long VIX Trading Strategy is Delivering 13 March 2012
  4. Shifting markets mean opportunity with VIX co… 24 February 2012
  5. Evolving my strategy for capturing volatility … 12 January 2012

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Performance detail

  • Manager
  • Dow Jones US Aggressive
  • S&P 500

Performance

Inception March 29, 2011
as of May 23, 2012 Manager Dow Jones US Aggressive S&P 500 Average Subscriber
Past 30 days -9.1% -3.6% -3.5% -9.2%
Past 90 days 1.7% -4.3% -3.3% 0.9%
Past 365 days -20.0% -0.5% 0.2% -
Since Inception (Annualized) -16.0% -0.3% 0.0% -
2012 (YTD) 19.4% 5.8% 4.9% 19.0%

Risk Metrics

Last 365 Days
as of May 23, 2012 Manager Dow Jones US Aggressive S&P 500
Best 30 days 24.3% 15.8% 13.6%
Worst 30 days -30.9% -20.2% -16.7%
Volatility 33.5% 26.3% 23.2%
Sharpe Ratio -0.60 -0.03 0.00
Sortino Ratio -0.68 -0.03 0.00
Maximum Drawdown -44.4% -22.6% -18.8%
Value-at-risk (95%, 1 week) -7.8% -6.1% -5.4%
vs. Dow Jones US Aggressive vs. S&P 500
Information Ratio -0.94 -0.98
Alpha -19.5% -19.9%
Beta 1.00 1.15
R-Squared 0.61 0.63

Latest transactions view all

Average trades per month 4.3
Executed Symbol Security Replicable Type Price
05/21/12 VXZ IPATH S&P 500 VIX M/T FU ETN Yes Sell short $50.48
05/18/12 VXZ IPATH S&P 500 VIX M/T FU ETN Yes Sell $50.99
05/18/12 VXX iPATH S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN Yes Buy to cover $21.70
05/17/12 VXZ IPATH S&P 500 VIX M/T FU ETN Yes Sell $50.56
05/17/12 VXX iPATH S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN Yes Buy to cover $20.65
05/16/12 VXZ IPATH S&P 500 VIX M/T FU ETN Yes Sell $50.14
05/16/12 VXX iPATH S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN Yes Buy to cover $19.98
04/27/12 VXX iPATH S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN Yes Sell short $16.29
  • $5,000 subscription min
  • margin account required
  • 1.1% fee

Important Information

Important Information

1. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

2. Performance of the model manager's account is calculated by Covestor on a daily time-weighted basis, including cash, dividends and earnings distributions, and broker commissions. Manager returns include trades that fail Covestor's trading rules, do not reflect any Covestor suitability or risk score restrictions and are exclusive of Covestor fees. More

3. Average subscription returns ("Avg Sub" or "Avg Client") are calculated by Covestor and are composed of the average, daily, time weighted returns of all active subscriptions to the underlying model. These daily average returns are then linked together for the timeframe requested. In addition, these returns include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, brokerage commissions, Covestor advisory fees, and reflect individual client suitability and risk score restrictions. More

4. All graph data is as of the end of day for the referenced period, unless otherwise specified. The subscription minimum is the minimum subscription required to follow a particular model. The minimum amount is determined by Covestor, based on the characteristics of the underlying model. It should not be considered as specific investment advice for your investment situation.

5. Benchmark returns have been calculated by Covestor using a time-weighted calculation of daily index valuations and do not include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, or transaction costs. More

6. Leverage indicates the level of margin utilized and is calculated by dividing gross exposure by portfolio net liquidation value.

7. All Model Manager information including personal data, profiles, strategies, monthly investment reports, and historical results outside of Covestor has been provided by the Model Manager. Covestor makes no representation or warranty of its accuracy, completeness or relevance and it does not represent the opinions of Covestor. Transaction history is available upon request. Model classifications (Approach, Asset Class) are provided by Covestor, and are intended to serve as a general guide.

8. Top Replicable Holdings: These securities are currently held in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable Holdings" currently pass Covestor's trading rules, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription holdings may vary.

9. Latest Transactions: These transactions were executed in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable" () passed Covestor's trading rules and were eligible for replication at the time of execution, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription trade activity may vary.

10. S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index compiled by Standard & Poor´s Corp. Index returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Individuals cannot invest directly in an Index. S&P 500 index data: S&P 500 Copyright © 2012.

11. Dow Jones index data: CME Group Index Services, LLC 2012