Patrick Larkin Profile Picture Individual Investor

Patrick Larkin

Professor of Finance,Education Management

  • Education University of Florida, Syracuse University, University of New Orleans
  • Qualifications Ph.D., Series 65

All Cap Value

This opportunistic value model focuses on purchasing cash generating firms with strong competitive positions when we believe they are out of favor and significantly undervalued. The portfolio is long only, may use minimal margin, does not trade leveraged or inverse ETFs, and is more concentrated than a typical mutual fund.
I try to buy when there are a lot of forced sellers in the market and to sell when a lot of undisciplined money has entered the market. As Buffett recommends, I look closely at stocks of good companies that are cheap because they are facing a large, one-time, solvable problem.  I'm willing to do very little buying or selling for long periods of time, though I am always learning and doing research. I take taxes and transactions costs into account in my buying and selling decisions, but I don't let the tax tail wag the investment dog.

My fundamental approach concentrates on cash flow analysis as well as standard multiple analysis.
My primary screening strategy involves eliminating stocks ranked in the bottom decile based on any one of several criteria found by academic research to result in poor performance. I then rank the remaining stocks on value and quality using a rule derived from my own research.

My secondary screening strategy involves monitoring the 13Fs of top investors or the postings of anyone who shares compelling ideas on the internet.

I perform rigorous fundamental analysis on all stocks that emerge from either screen before adding them to my portfolio.
I generally hold between five and twenty stocks. I might occasionally hold a large cash position. I will not make a purchase that causes the weight of a single stock to exceed 20%, or the weight of stocks that belong to a single industry to exceed 40%. I put tax efficiency and avoiding transactions costs ahead of rebalancing for diversification.
As a stock approaches my estimate of intrinsic value, I revaluate it and sell if I have an alternative with a better expected after-tax return. If a stock falls sharply, I also revaluate it, but I only sell if the fundamentals have deteriorated. I do not get scared out of a stock based solely on negative price action. As Peter Lynch said: "When stocks are attractive, you buy them. Sure, they can go lower. I've bought stocks at $12 that went to $2, but then they later went to $30. You just don't know when you can find the bottom."
I might occasionally buy stock in a firm that lacks a strong competitive advantage if it is very cheap and an identifiable catalyst is present. I might purchase an OTC stock or an ADR based in a country that is not on my usual list if the opportunity is extremely compelling.

Risk rating

3
13.8%

Best 30 days

-13.6%

Worst 30 days

Performance

  • -8.1%
    30 day
  • -
    365 days
  • 11.2%
    Since Inception
    August 17, 2011
Monthly vs S&P500
Sparkbar Graph, All Cap Value Investment Model Performance versus S&P500
0.5%

Since Inception

  • $25,000 subscription min
  • margin account required
  • 0.5% fee

Replicability

100.0%
  • Replicable

Top 5 Holdings View all

15.6%
14.5%
13.7%
9.7%
5.9%
  • MSFT
  • BRK B
  • AFAM
  • HHC
  • HPQ

Model commentary

  1. Sell in May? Take a look at these numbers

    3 May 2012

    An important question for investors is whether the lower historical returns from May through October are likely to be repeated in the future.

  2. My portfolio's still cheap based on 'look-thr… 3 April 2012
  3. Missteps at HP and DreamWorks Create Opportunity … 6 March 2012
  4. Why I added DreamWorks to my portfolio 16 February 2012
  5. Introducing my All Cap Value model 17 January 2012

show more


Performance detail

  • Manager
  • S&P 500

Performance

Inception August 17, 2011
as of May 24, 2012 Manager S&P 500 Average Subscriber
Past 30 days -8.1% -3.7% -
Past 90 days -9.5% -3.3% -
Since Inception 11.2% 10.6% -
2012 (YTD) 6.4% 5.0% -

Risk Metrics

Since Inception
as of May 24, 2012 Manager S&P 500
Best 30 days 13.8% 13.6%
Worst 30 days -13.6% -9.8%
Volatility 22.5% 21.3%
Sharpe Ratio 0.64 0.64
Sortino Ratio 1.00 0.91
Maximum Drawdown -13.6% -9.8%
Value-at-risk (95%, 1 week) -5.2% -4.9%
vs. S&P 500
Information Ratio 0.07
Alpha 1.5%
Beta 0.96
R-Squared 0.82

Latest transactions view all

Average trades per month 6.4
Executed Symbol Security Replicable Type Price
05/21/12 MSFT Microsoft Corp Yes Sell $29.34
05/21/12 IRE BANK OF IRELAND-SPONS ADR Yes Buy $4.79
05/21/12 EBAY eBay Inc Yes Buy $38.62
05/16/12 HPQ Hewlett-Packard Co Yes Sell $22.48
05/15/12 CSCO Cisco Systems Inc Yes Sell $16.66
05/15/12 COP ConocoPhillips Yes Sell $52.85
05/15/12 BDX Becton Dickinson and Co Yes Sell $76.20
05/15/12 BP BP PLC Yes Sell $38.43
  • $25,000 subscription min
  • margin account required
  • 0.5% fee

Important Information

Important Information

1. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

2. Performance of the model manager's account is calculated by Covestor on a daily time-weighted basis, including cash, dividends and earnings distributions, and broker commissions. Manager returns include trades that fail Covestor's trading rules, do not reflect any Covestor suitability or risk score restrictions and are exclusive of Covestor fees. More

3. Average subscription returns ("Avg Sub" or "Avg Client") are calculated by Covestor and are composed of the average, daily, time weighted returns of all active subscriptions to the underlying model. These daily average returns are then linked together for the timeframe requested. In addition, these returns include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, brokerage commissions, Covestor advisory fees, and reflect individual client suitability and risk score restrictions. More

4. All graph data is as of the end of day for the referenced period, unless otherwise specified. The subscription minimum is the minimum subscription required to follow a particular model. The minimum amount is determined by Covestor, based on the characteristics of the underlying model. It should not be considered as specific investment advice for your investment situation.

5. Benchmark returns have been calculated by Covestor using a time-weighted calculation of daily index valuations and do not include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, or transaction costs. More

6. Leverage indicates the level of margin utilized and is calculated by dividing gross exposure by portfolio net liquidation value.

7. All Model Manager information including personal data, profiles, strategies, monthly investment reports, and historical results outside of Covestor has been provided by the Model Manager. Covestor makes no representation or warranty of its accuracy, completeness or relevance and it does not represent the opinions of Covestor. Transaction history is available upon request. Model classifications (Approach, Asset Class) are provided by Covestor, and are intended to serve as a general guide.

8. Top Replicable Holdings: These securities are currently held in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable Holdings" currently pass Covestor's trading rules, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription holdings may vary.

9. Latest Transactions: These transactions were executed in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable" () passed Covestor's trading rules and were eligible for replication at the time of execution, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription trade activity may vary.

10. S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index compiled by Standard & Poor´s Corp. Index returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Individuals cannot invest directly in an Index. S&P 500 index data: S&P 500 Copyright © 2012.

11. Dow Jones index data: CME Group Index Services, LLC 2012