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Individual Investor
Michael Arold
Director, Channel Sales,Computer Software
- Education University of Stuttgart, Germany
- Qualifications Master in Aerospace Engineering
- Investment Experience 16 years private investing, 4 years short term equity trading
Technical Swing
Using multiple technical indicators, Arold surveys movements in the market and the sectors and stocks that are leading the way. Once interesting sectors or companies are identified, the manager takes a discretionary view, based on fundamentals, of likely moves in the opposite direction (i.e. have these been oversold or overbought). Short term model focusing on short term price swings.
Top down approach to market, considers what direction the market is moving and what sectors are leading that move, and within the sector what stocks. Identifies key metrics such as the price of the US dollar, the VIX, price of Gold or the Baltic Dry Index in order to develop a "market theme". Takes a discretionary approach rather than using a black box programmatic system. Occasionally remains at the sector level and captures trades across an industry through ETFs. Looking to capture a movement in price swing within 2 days to 2 months time frame.
Monitors all technical indicators and looks at multiple sources of data for sentiment direction including analyst recommendations, news, discussions, and multiple web sites. These websites include Investor's Business Daily, StockTwits, AbnormalReturns and BespokeInvestmentGroup. Likes to use extreme public predications as contrary indicator.
For more on the methodology, please click here.
For more on the methodology, please click here.
Final position decisions are made from a discretionary viewpoint blending in leading technical indicators with the macro perspective, company fundamentals if appropriate, and short term catalyst events. Maintains an active risk management model with no position putting more than 1% of the capital at risk, where the capital at risk is calculated from the volatility and price of the stock. Tries to hold 5-15 positions which is more than a classical swing trader, and to maintain some diversification of those positions across sectors.
Maintains soft stops on positions. Will hold positions 2 days to 2 months with a goal of maintaining a 60 % success ratio and 50% higher profit on successful positions than loss on unprofitably trades.
Doesn't like stocks that can be subject to external events that may have a sudden and dramatic effect on the company, so tends to avoid biotech and micro-cap stocks.
- Approach Quant/Technical
- Asset class Multi Asset Class
- Geography Global
- Subscribers20
Model commentary
An amazing parallel signaling market bottoms
26 January 2012
These three characteristics played out almost the exact same way in the last three market bottoms.
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