Leonard Fox Profile Picture Individual Investor

Len Fox

Trader, Scarecrow Trading,Financial Services,Scarecrow Trading

  • Education Regis University
  • Qualifications MBA
  • Founded 2003

Symphonic Index

This model uses 2 methods of exposing a composite of 5 signals to determine market exposure.   One method is static and the other is dynamic. The system trades leveraged 2x Beta ETFs and is long-short.
The model uses five signals that are equally weighted in determining the signal direction and market exposure. The degree of consensus determines the exposure. If all agree, a 100% position will be taken in the determined long or short direction. If there is some disagreement, a portion of the balance will be in cash.

The various signals differ in their opportunity analysis, providing diversification in analysis and outcomes. The signals used to determine the overarching position are subject to change.

The system trades 2 Beta ETFs.
Back testing – Walk Forward – Parking. Systems are developed with back testing as far as 1988. They are walked forward into time periods not used for testing. Systems are “parked” and performance reviewed with the new market data as it occurs.
The system uses multiple signals to establish a market position. If all systems agree in a LONG market call, the signal will take a 100% long position in the market. If ½ the systems are LONG and the other ½ are SHORT because of the equal opposing positions, the system would be in 100% CASH. There are times when it may be 20% LONG and 80% CASH depending on the degree that the signals agree or disagree.
Positions are closed when the signal reverses or weakens. As the signal weakens, the position is reduced.
In extreme markets, VIX (volatility index) may be used to reduce market exposure during extreme volatility.

Risk rating

5
19.8%

Best 30 days

-20.2%

Worst 30 days

Performance

  • -2.9%
    30 day
  • -17.2%
    365 days
  • -12.0%
    Since Inception
    May 09, 2010
Monthly vs S&P500
Sparkbar Graph, Symphonic Index Investment Model Performance versus S&P500
-16.1%

Last 12 months

  • $10,000 subscription min
  • margin account required
  • 2.3% fee

Replicability

100.0%
  • Replicable

Top 5 Holdings View all

46.4%
40.1%
13.5%
  • QLD
  • UWM
  • Cash

Model commentary

  1. Leonard Fox: Reducing leverage with these two ETFs (QLD, UWM)

    1 April 2011

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Performance detail

  • Manager
  • Russell 3000
  • S&P 500

Performance

Inception May 09, 2010
as of May 22, 2012 Manager Russell 3000 S&P 500 Average Subscriber
Past 30 days -2.9% -4.7% -4.5% -3.9%
Past 90 days -2.5% -3.6% -3.0% -5.4%
Past 365 days -17.2% -1.1% -0.1% -26.7%
Since Inception (Annualized) -6.1% 8.8% 8.7% -
2012 (YTD) 0.5% 4.8% 4.7% -5.1%
2011 -11.6% -0.9% 0.0% -

Risk Metrics

Last 365 Days
as of May 22, 2012 Manager Russell 3000 S&P 500
Best 30 days 19.8% 14.2% 13.6%
Worst 30 days -20.2% -18.0% -16.7%
Volatility 29.0% 24.2% 23.2%
Sharpe Ratio -0.60 -0.05 -0.01
Sortino Ratio -0.78 -0.07 -0.01
Maximum Drawdown -30.4% -20.5% -18.8%
Value-at-risk (95%, 1 week) -6.7% -5.6% -5.4%
vs. Russell 3000 vs. S&P 500
Information Ratio -0.91 -0.99
Alpha -16.4% -17.3%
Beta 0.95 1.00
R-Squared 0.63 0.64

Latest transactions view all

Average trades per month 20.4
Executed Symbol Security Replicable Type Price
05/22/12 QLD PROSHARES ULTRA QQQ Yes Sell $50.00
05/16/12 UWM PROSHARES ULTRA RUSSELL2000 Yes Buy $37.78
05/15/12 UWM PROSHARES ULTRA RUSSELL2000 Yes Sell $38.26
05/14/12 QLD PROSHARES ULTRA QQQ Yes Sell $52.45
05/14/12 UWM PROSHARES ULTRA RUSSELL2000 Yes Buy $38.55
05/10/12 QLD PROSHARES ULTRA QQQ Yes Buy $106.52
05/09/12 QLD PROSHARES ULTRA QQQ Yes Sell $107.53
05/08/12 QLD PROSHARES ULTRA QQQ Yes Buy $108.26
  • $10,000 subscription min
  • margin account required
  • 2.3% fee

Important Information

Important Information

1. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

2. Performance of the model manager's account is calculated by Covestor on a daily time-weighted basis, including cash, dividends and earnings distributions, and broker commissions. Manager returns include trades that fail Covestor's trading rules, do not reflect any Covestor suitability or risk score restrictions and are exclusive of Covestor fees. More

3. Average subscription returns ("Avg Sub" or "Avg Client") are calculated by Covestor and are composed of the average, daily, time weighted returns of all active subscriptions to the underlying model. These daily average returns are then linked together for the timeframe requested. In addition, these returns include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, brokerage commissions, Covestor advisory fees, and reflect individual client suitability and risk score restrictions. More

4. All graph data is as of the end of day for the referenced period, unless otherwise specified. The subscription minimum is the minimum subscription required to follow a particular model. The minimum amount is determined by Covestor, based on the characteristics of the underlying model. It should not be considered as specific investment advice for your investment situation.

5. Benchmark returns have been calculated by Covestor using a time-weighted calculation of daily index valuations and do not include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, or transaction costs. More

6. Leverage indicates the level of margin utilized and is calculated by dividing gross exposure by portfolio net liquidation value.

7. All Model Manager information including personal data, profiles, strategies, monthly investment reports, and historical results outside of Covestor has been provided by the Model Manager. Covestor makes no representation or warranty of its accuracy, completeness or relevance and it does not represent the opinions of Covestor. Transaction history is available upon request. Model classifications (Approach, Asset Class) are provided by Covestor, and are intended to serve as a general guide.

8. Top Replicable Holdings: These securities are currently held in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable Holdings" currently pass Covestor's trading rules, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription holdings may vary.

9. Latest Transactions: These transactions were executed in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable" () passed Covestor's trading rules and were eligible for replication at the time of execution, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription trade activity may vary.

10. S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index compiled by Standard & Poor´s Corp. Index returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Individuals cannot invest directly in an Index. S&P 500 index data: S&P 500 Copyright © 2012.

11. Dow Jones index data: CME Group Index Services, LLC 2012