Lelio Vrancovich Profile Picture Individual Investor

Lelio Vrancovich

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Technical ETFs

The strategy consists of buying and selling highly liquid ETFs at major market turning points. To minimize headline risk and to reduce volatility, the model will hold no individual stocks.
The approach is centered around measuring market breadth internals and determining when the stock averages are masking weakness or strength. This is accomplished by using overbought and oversold indicators around moving averages. The model will generally buy after corrections and sell after rallies.

The model may utilize inverse ETFs, but will not own leveraged ETFs.
Trading decisions are based on technical indicators that identify overbought and oversold conditions in markets.
This model will typically hold around 2 to 3 ETF positions (but may hold as little as 1 ETF). Holding periods are determined by market conditions. Trading costs and implications are considered before placing a trade.
Positions will be closed once the factors that led to their acquisition are no longer valid.
None.

Risk score

5
19.2%

Best 30 days

-24.8%

Worst 30 days

Performance

  • -3.3%
    30 day
  • -31.3%
    90 day
  • -29.7%
    365 day
Monthly vs S&P500
lelio vrancovich - technical etfs
-47.4% 12 months
  • $5,000 subscription min
  • 0.5% fee

Replicability

100.0%
  • Replicable

Top 5 Holdings View all

88.9%
11.1%

Model commentary

  1. Two stocks for 2013: Diana Containerships and Zynga

    16 December 2012

    Here are two stocks that I expect to rally next year.

  2. Staying defensive in an uncertain market 28 November 2012
  3. How small investors can take advantage of high-frequency traders 16 August 2012
  4. My contrarian trade: go long Spain and short the U.S. 26 July 2012
  5. Stay Vigilant - A Stock Market Correction is Coming 15 March 2012

show more


Performance detail

  • Manager
  • S&P 500

Performance

Inception August 08, 2011
as of May 17, 2013 Manager S&P 500 Average Subscriber
Past 30 days -3.3% 7.4% -
Past 90 days -31.3% 9.7% -
Past 365 days -29.7% 27.8% -
Since Inception (Annualized) -14.6% 25.2% -
2013 (YTD) -37.5% 16.9% -
2012 16.5% 13.4% -

Risk Metrics

Last 365 days
as of May 17, 2013 Manager S&P 500
Best 30 days 18.8% 7.5%
Worst 30 days -24.8% -7.0%
Volatility 29.0% 12.8%
Sharpe Ratio - 1.03 2.17
Sortino Ratio - 1.34 3.14
Maximum Drawdown -40.2% -7.7%
Value-at-risk (95%, 1 week) -6.7% -3.0%
vs. S&P 500
Information Ratio -2.00
Alpha -45.4%
Beta 0.56
R-Squared 0.06
  • $5,000 subscription min
  • 0.5% fee

Latest transactions view all

Average trades per month 0.6
Executed Symbol Security Replicable Type Price
01/23/13 GDX MARKET VECTORS GOLD MINERS Yes Buy $44.94
01/15/13 GDX MARKET VECTORS GOLD MINERS Yes Sell $45.53
01/04/13 GDX MARKET VECTORS GOLD MINERS Yes Buy $44.74
11/28/12 GDX MARKET VECTORS GOLD MINERS Yes Sell $46.40
11/15/12 GDX MARKET VECTORS GOLD MINERS Yes Buy $46.87
08/31/12 GDXJ MARKET VECTORS JR GOLD MINER Yes Sell $21.36
08/31/12 GDX MARKET VECTORS GOLD MINERS Yes Sell $46.93
04/26/12 GDXJ MARKET VECTORS JR GOLD MINER Yes Buy $22.53


Important Information

1. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

2. Performance of the model manager's account is calculated by Covestor on a daily time-weighted basis, including cash, dividends and earnings distributions, and broker commissions. Manager returns include trades that fail Covestor's trading rules, do not reflect any Covestor suitability or risk score restrictions and are exclusive of Covestor fees. More

3. Average subscription returns ("Avg Sub" or "Avg Client") are calculated by Covestor and are composed of the average, daily, time weighted returns of all active subscriptions to the underlying model. These daily average returns are then linked together for the timeframe requested. In addition, these returns include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, brokerage commissions, Covestor advisory fees, and reflect individual client suitability and risk score restrictions. More

4. All graph data is as of the end of day for the referenced period, unless otherwise specified. The subscription minimum is the minimum subscription required to follow a particular model. The minimum amount is determined by Covestor, based on the characteristics of the underlying model. It should not be considered as specific investment advice for your investment situation.

5. The performance charts are provided for informational purposes only, and should not be used as the basis for making an investment decision. Variables such as corporate actions or foreign exchange may affect daily performance displays. We rely on mathematical formulas, computer programs, and pricing information from third-party vendors to provide these returns. Neither Covestor nor any of its data or content providers shall be liable for any errors in this information or any actions taken by you in reliance upon this information.

6. Benchmark returns have been calculated by Covestor using a time-weighted calculation of daily index valuations and do not include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, or transaction costs. More

7. Leverage indicates the level of margin utilized and is calculated by dividing gross exposure by portfolio net liquidation value.

8. All Model Manager information including personal data, profiles, strategies, monthly investment reports, and historical results outside of Covestor has been provided by the Model Manager. Covestor makes no representation or warranty of its accuracy, completeness or relevance and it does not represent the opinions of Covestor. Transaction history is available upon request. Model classifications (Approach, Asset Class) are provided by Covestor, and are intended to serve as a general guide.

9. Top Replicable Holdings: These securities are currently held in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable Holdings" currently pass Covestor's trading rules, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription holdings may vary.

10. Latest Transactions: These transactions were executed in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable" () passed Covestor's trading rules and were eligible for replication at the time of execution, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription trade activity may vary.

11. S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index compiled by Standard & Poor´s Corp. Index returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Individuals cannot invest directly in an Index. S&P 500 index data: S&P/Dow Jones Indices LLC, a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies Copyright © 2013.