Joseph Mjelde Profile Picture Individual Investor

Joe Mjelde

Operations NCOIC,Military

  • Education Washington State University
  • Qualifications BA Management & Operations
  • Investment Experience 20+ Years

High Growth

The model’s strategy is to focus on growth stocks that exhibit the potential for annualized growth in excess of 20 percent.  Recognizing the fact that past growth is no guarantee of future growth, analysis also focuses on future potential of a company and industry.  When conducting an analysis of a potential investment, past growth could have come from conditions that will not hold in the future.  So, in summary, the model only considers companies that have a.) performed well in the past (consistent revenue, cash flow, and earnings growth of 20 percent or higher) and b.) show significant potential for continued growth due to industry trends, internal product innovation, and highly skilled/competent management.
The investment approach is bottom-up, using fundamental analysis to find the best performing companies in an industry.  The model looks at the big economic picture and tries to capitalize on emerging trends.  An example of this is bullishness on the energy sector, particularly solar.  With higher than normal inflation, combined with decreasing world oil reserves, the model forecasts a dramatic increase in oil prices.  With decreasing production costs, solar is well positioned to capitalize on this trend as ‘cost parity’ on a non-subsidized basis is realized in the next couple of years.  These factors will result in enormous demand for solar positions.
With a fondness for fundamental analysis, the methodology is founded on the belief that value is ultimately driven by consistent earnings growth and increasing book value.  To that end, the model focuses on a few simple numbers (revenue, earnings, and free cash flow growth) that will ultimately drive an increase in value.  Management talent and the company’s friendliness/transparency toward shareholders is also key.   In addition to internet stock screeners, Standard & Poors Stock Reports are used as an objective data source.
The model will typically hold 20+ high quality, well researched stocks in sectors poised for long term growth.   Currently, the model will allocate as follows:  Solar-25%; Oil & Gas-20%; Health-20%; Technology-20%; Real Estate-5%; Industrial-10%.  The model must be diversified but not over diversified or upside returns will be limited.  Rebalancing is not done proactively; rather, the model allows winners to grow.  As the above allocation indicates, the model is very bullish on alternative energy at the time.
The model will only sell if the reasons for which purchased a stock no longer hold.  The model is not momentum-based, so the model has low turnover.  If a holding loses market value but is still fundamentally sound, the model will not ‘sell low’.  This discipline keeps the model from falling into the fear/greed cycle that affects too many investors.  A few specific examples that would result in a sell decision would be: company earnings relative to industry peers are weak; falling revenues/market share/earnings when the market as a whole is doing well; massive liability concerns; and unforeseen circumstances such as an acquisition by a larger company resulting in a dramatic run up in price.
No exceptions.

Risk rating

4
12.1%

Best 30 days

-20.1%

Worst 30 days

Performance

  • -8.0%
    30 day
  • -34.4%
    365 days
  • -34.3%
    Since Inception
    July 18, 2010
Monthly vs S&P500
Sparkbar Graph, High Growth Investment Model Performance versus S&P500
-36.9%

Last 12 months

  • $5,000 subscription min
  • 1.5% fee

Replicability

99.7%
0.3%
  • Replicable
  • Non-replicable

Top 5 Holdings View all

13.8%
11.7%
5.0%
4.5%
4.2%
  • PWER
  • RAX
  • XOM
  • EBIX
  • DWSN

Model commentary

  1. Google's 3 strategic choices on the Facebook threat (GOOG)

    11 April 2011

  2. Joseph Mjelde buying 4 solar energy stocks: LDK … 4 April 2011

show more


Performance detail

  • Manager
  • S&P 500
30D 90D 365D SI

Performance

Inception July 18, 2010
as of May 22, 2012 Manager S&P 500 Average Subscriber
Past 30 days -8.0% -4.5% -6.6%
Past 90 days -18.0% -3.0% -15.7%
Past 365 days -34.4% -0.1% -29.3%
Since Inception (Annualized) -20.4% 12.2% -
2012 (YTD) -7.9% 4.7% -7.5%
2011 -33.8% 0.0% -27.6%

Risk Metrics

Last 365 Days
as of May 22, 2012 Manager S&P 500
Best 30 days 12.1% 13.6%
Worst 30 days -20.1% -16.7%
Volatility 25.7% 23.2%
Sharpe Ratio -1.34 -0.01
Sortino Ratio -2.02 -0.01
Maximum Drawdown -36.6% -18.8%
Value-at-risk (95%, 1 week) -6.0% -5.4%
vs. S&P 500
Information Ratio -2.50
Alpha -41.3%
Beta 0.94
R-Squared 0.72

Latest transactions view all

Average trades per month 0.7
Executed Symbol Security Replicable Type Price
04/01/11 GSLO GO SOLAR USA INC   Buy $0.31
04/01/11 JKS JINKOSOLAR HOLDING CO-ADR Yes Buy $26.41
04/01/11 TSL Trina Solar Ltd Yes Buy $29.17
04/01/11 JASO JA SOLAR HOLDINGS CO LTD-ADR Yes Buy $6.85
04/01/11 LDK LDK Solar Co Ltd Yes Buy $11.91
03/25/11 GSLO GO SOLAR USA INC   Buy $0.36
03/25/11 FSLR FIRST SOLAR INC Yes Buy $149.13
03/25/11 PWER Power-One Inc Yes Buy $8.46
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  • $5,000 subscription min
  • 1.5% fee

Important Information

Important Information

1. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

2. Performance of the model manager's account is calculated by Covestor on a daily time-weighted basis, including cash, dividends and earnings distributions, and broker commissions. Manager returns include trades that fail Covestor's trading rules, do not reflect any Covestor suitability or risk score restrictions and are exclusive of Covestor fees. More

3. Average subscription returns ("Avg Sub" or "Avg Client") are calculated by Covestor and are composed of the average, daily, time weighted returns of all active subscriptions to the underlying model. These daily average returns are then linked together for the timeframe requested. In addition, these returns include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, brokerage commissions, Covestor advisory fees, and reflect individual client suitability and risk score restrictions. More

4. All graph data is as of the end of day for the referenced period, unless otherwise specified. The subscription minimum is the minimum subscription required to follow a particular model. The minimum amount is determined by Covestor, based on the characteristics of the underlying model. It should not be considered as specific investment advice for your investment situation.

5. Benchmark returns have been calculated by Covestor using a time-weighted calculation of daily index valuations and do not include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, or transaction costs. More

6. Leverage indicates the level of margin utilized and is calculated by dividing gross exposure by portfolio net liquidation value.

7. All Model Manager information including personal data, profiles, strategies, monthly investment reports, and historical results outside of Covestor has been provided by the Model Manager. Covestor makes no representation or warranty of its accuracy, completeness or relevance and it does not represent the opinions of Covestor. Transaction history is available upon request. Model classifications (Approach, Asset Class) are provided by Covestor, and are intended to serve as a general guide.

8. Top Replicable Holdings: These securities are currently held in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable Holdings" currently pass Covestor's trading rules, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription holdings may vary.

9. Latest Transactions: These transactions were executed in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable" () passed Covestor's trading rules and were eligible for replication at the time of execution, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription trade activity may vary.

10. S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index compiled by Standard & Poor´s Corp. Index returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Individuals cannot invest directly in an Index. S&P 500 index data: S&P 500 Copyright © 2012.

11. Dow Jones index data: CME Group Index Services, LLC 2012


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