John Ward Profile Picture Individual Investor

John Ward

Precedent Based 2

While fundamental analysis is of paramount importance to the model, it is coupled with market timing strategies tempered by historical precedent and derived from the daily study of technical action (price/volume).
The methodology of the model stems from and is founded on the collective research and studies of those traders who history has established possessed highly unusual market acumen. For example, Richard Wyckoff was the first to identify common characteristics in history’s great winning stocks, and, not only that, to study how the great traders of his day “worked” these stocks, how they identified and handled them. This laid the groundwork for those who would follow, men like Bernard Baruch, Gerald Loeb, Nicholas Darvas and, presently, William O’Neil. They all learned and then eventually contributed to what Wyckoff started. The model, therefore, is “precedent-based,” is operating from this historical perspective, a perspective that extends back some 130 years.
The model eschews almost all financial media. Investor’s Business Daily and all its premium tools, including Daily Graphs Online, are the vehicles of choice. Certain ancillary sources that prove themselves worthwhile may be used in a “consulting” capacity also.
The model is designed to hold in bulk 5 leading stocks or less when the market is trending higher, though it may very well hold more; conversely, when the market is trending lower, it endeavors to hold inverse ETFs and/or to short those stocks that institutional money had previously rushed into before the trend change.
Whether cutting just a portion of a position or the entire stake, most sells are based on the stock’s technical action, notwithstanding the company’s fundamentals. It would be impossible to list the many sell signals here, yet they include “climax runs,” a stock breaking above or below a long-term trend-line or simply exhibiting deleterious price action.
None.

Risk rating

5
43.1%

Best 30 days

-50.0%

Worst 30 days

Performance

  • -4.8%
    30 day
  • -
    365 days
  • -48.3%
    Since Inception
    August 14, 2011
Monthly vs S&P500
Sparkbar Graph, Precedent Based 2 Investment Model Performance versus S&P500
-59.9%

Since Inception

  • $25,000 subscription min
  • margin account required
  • 2.3% fee

Replicability

100.0%
  • Replicable

Top 5 Holdings View all

100.0%
  • Cash

Model commentary

  1. What Covestor managers are buying: IPG Photonics Corporation (IPGP)

    21 April 2011

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Performance detail

  • Manager
  • S&P 500
30D 90D 365D SI

Performance

Inception August 14, 2011
as of May 22, 2012 Manager S&P 500 Average Subscriber
Past 30 days -4.8% -4.5% -
Past 90 days -24.7% -3.0% -
Since Inception -48.3% 11.7% -
2012 (YTD) -25.9% 4.7% -

Risk Metrics

Since Inception
as of May 22, 2012 Manager S&P 500
Best 30 days 43.1% 13.6%
Worst 30 days -50.0% -9.8%
Volatility 71.9% 21.4%
Sharpe Ratio -0.87 0.70
Sortino Ratio -1.16 1.01
Maximum Drawdown -71.6% -9.8%
Value-at-risk (95%, 1 week) -16.7% -5.0%
vs. S&P 500
Information Ratio -0.92
Alpha -31.6%
Beta -1.66
R-Squared 0.25

Latest transactions view all

Average trades per month 73.9
Executed Symbol Security Replicable Type Price
05/21/12 EDZ DIREXION DLY EMG MKT BEAR 3X Yes Sell $17.80
05/21/12 EDZ DIREXION DLY EMG MKT BEAR 3X Yes Sell $17.83
05/17/12 EDZ DIREXION DLY EMG MKT BEAR 3X Yes Buy $17.71
05/16/12 EDZ DIREXION DLY EMG MKT BEAR 3X Yes Sell $17.38
05/16/12 EDZ DIREXION DLY EMG MKT BEAR 3X Yes Sell $17.21
05/15/12 EDZ DIREXION DLY EMG MKT BEAR 3X Yes Buy $16.33
05/15/12 EDZ DIREXION DLY EMG MKT BEAR 3X Yes Buy $16.33
05/15/12 EDZ DIREXION DLY EMG MKT BEAR 3X Yes Sell $16.25
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  • $25,000 subscription min
  • margin account required
  • 2.3% fee

Important Information

Important Information

1. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

2. Performance of the model manager's account is calculated by Covestor on a daily time-weighted basis, including cash, dividends and earnings distributions, and broker commissions. Manager returns include trades that fail Covestor's trading rules, do not reflect any Covestor suitability or risk score restrictions and are exclusive of Covestor fees. More

3. Average subscription returns ("Avg Sub" or "Avg Client") are calculated by Covestor and are composed of the average, daily, time weighted returns of all active subscriptions to the underlying model. These daily average returns are then linked together for the timeframe requested. In addition, these returns include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, brokerage commissions, Covestor advisory fees, and reflect individual client suitability and risk score restrictions. More

4. All graph data is as of the end of day for the referenced period, unless otherwise specified. The subscription minimum is the minimum subscription required to follow a particular model. The minimum amount is determined by Covestor, based on the characteristics of the underlying model. It should not be considered as specific investment advice for your investment situation.

5. Benchmark returns have been calculated by Covestor using a time-weighted calculation of daily index valuations and do not include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, or transaction costs. More

6. Leverage indicates the level of margin utilized and is calculated by dividing gross exposure by portfolio net liquidation value.

7. All Model Manager information including personal data, profiles, strategies, monthly investment reports, and historical results outside of Covestor has been provided by the Model Manager. Covestor makes no representation or warranty of its accuracy, completeness or relevance and it does not represent the opinions of Covestor. Transaction history is available upon request. Model classifications (Approach, Asset Class) are provided by Covestor, and are intended to serve as a general guide.

8. Top Replicable Holdings: These securities are currently held in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable Holdings" currently pass Covestor's trading rules, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription holdings may vary.

9. Latest Transactions: These transactions were executed in the model manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable" () passed Covestor's trading rules and were eligible for replication at the time of execution, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription trade activity may vary.

10. S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index compiled by Standard & Poor´s Corp. Index returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Individuals cannot invest directly in an Index. S&P 500 index data: S&P 500 Copyright © 2012.

11. Dow Jones index data: CME Group Index Services, LLC 2012


About investing

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