The Seasonal ETF Growth Portfolio attempts to invest aggressively in months when US stock market returns are historically strong. Conversely, it typically dials back the risk in the months when stock market gains are historically weak. It accomplishes this goal by strategically shifting from either low beta or low-volatility Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) to more aggressive ones.
Research has shown that investing in the “best” seasonal months -- typically November through April -- will produce stronger stock market returns than the May through October period. This is typically called the “Halloween effect”, or “Sell in May and Go Away.” My strategy seeks to leverage this phenomenon by purchasing more volatile investments in the “best” months, and holding a low beta, or low-volatility portfolio during the “worst” months. I also monitor the portfolio using technical signals to help dial up, or dial down risk levels.
My research includes studies of seasonal effects, my own proprietary trading signals, and various subscription and non-subscription services.
The Seasonal ETF Portfolio typically will invest in a maximum of 10 ETFs at one time. Diversification is not a primary objective. The portfolio seeks to be invested in equity-based ETFs, unless technical signals suggest that the portfolio needs to be in a cash position. I may also elect to hedge all or part of the portfolio with a short ETF position, instead of going to cash. I tend to gradually re-allocate to cash over time, then build back up to becoming fully invested again.
My primary determinant for changing positions will be the switch from high-beta to low-beta investing, or vice versa, based on the season. Holdings also will be replaced if I decide that they are not adding value to the portfolio.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Performance of the portfolio manager's account is calculated by Covestor on a daily time-weighted basis, including cash, dividends and earnings distributions, and broker commissions. Manager returns include trades that fail Covestor's trading rules, do not reflect any Covestor suitability or risk score restrictions and are exclusive of Covestor fees. More
Average subscription returns ("Avg Sub" or "Avg Client") are calculated by Covestor and are composed of the average, daily, time weighted returns of all active subscriptions to the underlying portfolio. These daily average returns are then linked together for the timeframe requested. In addition, these returns include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, brokerage commissions, Covestor advisory fees, and reflect individual client suitability and risk score restrictions. More
All graph data is as of the end of day for the referenced period, unless otherwise specified. The subscription minimum is the minimum subscription required to follow a particular portfolio. The minimum amount is determined by Covestor, based on the characteristics of the underlying portfolio. It should not be considered as specific investment advice for your investment situation.
The performance charts are provided for informational purposes only, and should not be used as the basis for making an investment decision. Variables such as corporate actions or foreign exchange may affect daily performance displays. We rely on mathematical formulas, computer programs, and pricing information from third-party vendors to provide these returns. Neither Covestor nor any of its data or content providers shall be liable for any errors in this information or any actions taken by you in reliance upon this information.
Benchmark returns have been calculated by Covestor using a time-weighted calculation of daily index valuations. Benchmarks presented are total return and therefore inclusive of cash, dividends and earnings distributions but not transaction costs.
Leverage indicates the level of margin utilized and is calculated by dividing gross exposure by portfolio net liquidation value.
All Portfolio Manager information including personal data, profiles, strategies, monthly investment reports, and historical results outside of Covestor has been provided by the Portfolio Manager. Covestor makes no representation or warranty of its accuracy, completeness or relevance and it does not represent the opinions of Covestor. Transaction history is available upon request. Portfolio classifications (Approach, Asset Class) are provided by Covestor, and are intended to serve as a general guide.
These securities are currently held in the portfolio manager's brokerage account. Holdings in the "Replicable Holdings" table currently pass Covestor's trading rules, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription holdings may vary.
These transactions were executed in the portfolio manager's brokerage account. Those marked as "Replicable Transactions" passed Covestor's trading rules and were eligible for replication at the time of execution, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription trade activity may vary.